Final Kentucky Derby Thoughts

Happy Thurby! We are just days away from the Kentucky Derby and here is the field!

  1. Trojan Nation
  2. Suddenbreakingnews
  3. Creator
  4. Mo Tom
  5. Gun Runner
  6. My Man Sam
  7. Oscar Nominated
  8. Lani
  9. Destin
  10. Whitmore
  11. Exaggerator
  12. Tom’s Ready
  13. Nyquist
  14. Mohaymen
  15. Outwork
  16. Shagaf
  17. Mor Spirit
  18. Majesto
  19. Brody’s Cause
  20. Danzing Candy
    1. Laoban
    2. Cherry Wine

Oh my god this is so exciting. People are really having a good time whining about the field, but whatever its a solid bunch the top 1/3 as always is solid and the bottom 1/3 is horrible as always so I don’t know what people want.

Good news is it looks like the main horses did not really get screwed on the draw. Besides maybe Brody’s Cause and Suddenbreakingnews they all really got solid spots.

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Laoban is a hunk

There are two best case scenarios in this Derby.

First one is Laoban, everyone’s favorite maiden, pulling in because Oscar Nominated scratched. No one likes Oscar anyways, including his sponsor. But Laoban is the best and he is trained by everyone’s favorite voodoo artist Eric Guillot. Just the idea of Guillot in the winners’ circle with a maiden is just fantastic. The other maiden is Trojan War who has been a total psycho in the mornings and really doesn’t look good, he’s in the one hole too which is just rough. Him winning would not be nearly as fun as Laoban.

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Lani loves being back in Kentucky

The other best case scenario is Big Dick Lani taking it home. The Japanese sensation is thrilled to be at Churchill Downs and comes out to the track swinging past his knees. His crew is really cool too, they’re all very friendly and very proud of the horse but are visibly embarrassed when he walks onto the track to train, but they’re embarrassed about the wrong thing. His training is weird, theyre not even gonna school him in the paddock but WHO CARES how nutty would it be if BDL does it?!

I am admittedly disappointed that Mo Tom didn’t draw the rail since he loves it so much. The unluckiest horse is still in number four so its not that great. You need luck to win a race, let alone the Derby and he has none. Meanwhile his owners have the current favorite to finish second with Tom’s Ready! It just isn’t the Triple Crown without Dallas Stewart coming in second.

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Gun Runner has the look of eagles

The Asmussen duo Gun Runner and Creator both are looking super. Creator definitely wins the pretty pony contest but it would also be great to see Ricardo Santana win. Creator is getting better and better every race and his Arkansas Derby was a massive step up. If he continues on he will be formidable.

Gun Runner is going against my creed of disregarding the Louisiana horses but he has a lot of upside. He has won on the Churchill surface before, did well when it was wet too, and has been sensational down at Fair Grounds. The Louisiana form holds well for the fillies, but for some reason hasn’t been as great with the colts. Last Derby winner to come out of Louisiana was Funny Cide who was also the last Derby winner to come out of the Wood Memorial! He was second in both.

Speaking of the Wood Memorial, Outwork is looking just super and his only loss is to that pansy Destin. Both are trained by Todd who has a much smaller squad than he has in the past. Outwork to me is the much better horse, especially with Destin’s weird layoff. Tampa form has done well up at Churchill, and while Destin was definitely the best that day Outwork looked great in second and went on to a very gritty win in the Wood. Plus he’s owned by Mike Repole who is just great.

Cherry Wine will be an excellent Preakness horse.

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Lani getting used to the sight of Exaggerator’s butt.

California has a really interesting group with my bae Exaggerator who I’ve loved since accidentally seeing his Saratoga Special, Mor Spirit and Danzing Candy. Mor Spirit lacks something that I can’t totally put my finger on, meanwhile Danzing Candy will probably set a nice pace but who knows if he can get up there in time starting from 20. Good news though is that if he has a bad break he has some wiggle room with no one on his outside. Regardless, Exaggerator rocks and if it comes up wet he will rock even more. We should all crack open an ICE to celebrate if he wins.

I still maintain Mohaymen is a poser. Everyone is all high about how good he looks but for $2,000,000 he better look good. Whatever, he’ll do well at Gulfstream down the road in the Donn or something.

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Sorry Shagaf.

Shagaf is my pick to finish last.

Two horses I just can’t figure out are Majesto and Whitmore. Majesto is just weird as hell, it took him five tries to break his maiden then he had a real nice run in the Florida Derby. It was probably a fluke and he’ll likely never win a graded stakes again in his life, but he might still finish up there. Whitmore on the other hand is always so close and always does so well but can just never get it done. Cupid totally turned him away in the Rebel but he still had a fantastic run in there. Just can’t figure these two out. Another horse I just don’t get the hype is My Man Sam, sure he’s alright and can perform well sometimes but he isn’t really all that good.

Brody’s Cause just seems slow. Like Carpe Diem he is very good at Keeneland but doesn’t do well anywhere else. But hey, at least he’s won at Churchill before so that’s a bonus.

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C’mon, this is kinda silly right?

End of the day though, I really think Nyquist is just head and shoulders the best horse in the race. Only way he loses is a bad trip. He’s already got over $3mil in the bank, is the champion and has has never lost. Thing is though, bad trips happen this is the Kentucky Derby we’re talking about. He’s starting from a good spot, he has a versatile running style, and ya know he is just the best horse in the race. There is the question of his pedigree if he cant get the distance and frankly I just think that’s dumb. Uncle Mo kiddos haven’t even run that far yet so who knows if they’re good or not. It raises the question if they can do it, but it shouldn’t cause any doubt. Pretty sure Tonalist was only the second Tapit kid to win at 10f or over after Careless Jewel and now they’re doing it all over the place. Pedigree is overrated.

No matter what, the Kentucky Derby is my favorite race and this is my favorite week of the year. Only time there’s a better week is leading into the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line. But the Derby is something else and may always be my true love.

Here is my predicted finishing order:

  1. Nyquist
  2. Tom’s Ready
  3. Suddenbreakingnews
  4. Gun Runner
  5. Creator
  6. My Man Sam
  7. Exaggerator
  8. Destin
  9. Whitmore
  10. Outwork
  11. Mohaymen
  12. Lani
  13. Mo Tom
  14. Danzing Candy
  15. Trojan Nation
  16. Mor Spirit
  17. Brody’s Cause
  18. Laoban
  19. Majesto
  20. Shagaf

Naturally, Oscar Nominated will scratch but likely not in time for Laoban to get in in typical Ramsey fashion. Hoping for the best here regardless.

 

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